How to Forecast PI Scope with Nesma Easy Functional Sizing

Turn PI Planning from a confident-sounding guess into a number your team can defend. This guide shows Agile Release Trains how to size Features directly from the short descriptions available at PI Planning — no full story breakdown required — using the same Nesma Easy Functional Sizing method as the rest of this series. It then walks through turning historical delivery data, your team's own or AgileBenchmark's peer benchmarks, into a Low, Likely, and High forecast, each with a stated confidence level, instead of a single figure that quietly erodes trust every time it's missed.

Built around one complete worked example — two teams, a shared Program Backlog, and a full PI forecast from first Feature to final commitment — this guide covers:

• 3 worked Feature examples sized directly from PI Planning-level requirements

• Building a draft Program Backlog size before story decomposition even starts

• Turning team throughput history — or AgileBenchmark/ISBSG peer data when that history is thin — into a statistically grounded capacity range

• Why a PI forecast should always be a range, not a single number, and how to attach a confidence level to it

• Mapping the forecast onto the backlog to separate Committed Objectives from Stretch Objectives

Part of the Nesma EFS series, which carries one consistent function-point measurement from a product's total functionality down to a single sprint and up to a full Program Increment. Also available in the Complete Series bundle.